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Real GDP Grew by 2.01% in First Quarter of 2019. Strongest Q1 Performance Since 2015.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria, revealed that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.01% (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2019.  This figure is compared to the first quarter of 2018 where a real GDP growth rate of 1.89% was recorded.

The Q1 2019 growth rate signified an increase of 0.12% points. However, relative to the previous quarter (Q4 2018), real GDP growth rate dropped by 0.38% points.

Nominal And Real GDP Growth In Q1 2019.

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The aggregate GDP for the period stood at N31.7 trillion in nominal terms while real GDP stood at N16.42 trillion. This total is higher than in Q1 2018 which recorded N28.4 trillion (nominal), indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 11.80%. The aggregate was, however, lower than the figure (N35.2 trillion) recorded in the preceding quarter (Q4) by -9.75%.

Meanwhile, the nominal GDP growth rate in Q1 2019 was higher than the rate documented in Q1 2018 by 2.54% points.

The Oil Sector Performance In Q1 2019.

In the period under review, the average daily oil production stood at 1.96 million barrels per day (mbpd). It is 0.02 million barrels lower than the average daily production of 1.98 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2018, but higher than the Q4 2018 production volume by 0.05mbpd.

The NBS noted that the level of oil output during the quarter was the highest recorded over the past one year and the second highest since mid-2017.

Real GDP growth in the oil sector was -2.40% (year-on-year) in Q1 2019, indicating a decrease by 16.43% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of last year. Growth in the quarter declined by -0.79% points when compared to Q4 2018 which was -1.62%. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 11.60% in Q1 2019.

Oil Sector’s contribution to real GDP in Q1 2019.

The oil sector added a total of 9.14% to real GDP in Q1 2019, down from 9.55% which was recorded in the corresponding period of 2018 but up when compared quarter-on-quarter, where it contributed 7.06% in Q4 2018.

The Non-Oil Sector Performance in Q1 2019.

The bureau reported that the non-oil sector grew by 2.47% in real terms during the first quarter. This growth was 1.72% points higher when equated to the corresponding quarter in 2018, but -0.23% points lower than Q4 2018.

The sector during the quarter, was mainly driven by information and communication technology. Other drivers of the sector include: Agriculture, Trade and Construction, Transportation and Storage.

Non-Oil Sector’s Contribution to GDP in Q1 2019.

In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 90.86% to the nation’s gross domestic product, 0.41% points higher than the points recorded in Q1 2018 (90.45%) but -2.08% points lower than the 92.94% recorded in Q4 2018.

Reason For The Performance.

The statistics bureau, however, stated in the released bulletin that “It is worth noting that general elections were held across the country during the first quarter of 2019 and this may have reflected in the strongest first quarter performance observed since 2015.”

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Real GDP Quarterly Growth From Q1 2017 – Q1 2019.

The Q1 2019 growth rate recorded can be regarded as the third highest rate recorded since the aftermath of the 2016 economic slump.

Reports from the statistics bureau indicated that Q1 2017 recorded a negative growth (-0.91%), while Q2-Q4 of same year documented 0.71%, 1.17% and 2.11% respectively.

The four quarters of year 2018 witnessed positive growth from Q1-Q4 recording 1.89%, 1.50%, 1.81% and 2.38% respectively while the first quarter of year 2019 witnessed 2.01% growth.



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